A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
