Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
